Biodiversity persistence under climate change: the role of niche evolution and species’ performance

Projektdetails

Beschreibung

Wider research context
Land-use and climate change are main drivers of biodiversity loss and shape species’ distributions and biotic interactions. A species community is the result of a variety of processes that can be divided into contemporary habitat conditions (short-term) and the evolutionary history of species (long-term). Phylogenetic comparative studies on niches of species with different levels of specialisation may provide valuable insights on the drivers of diversification and extinction in times of global change. European butterflies are well understood in terms of taxonomy, phylogeny and ecology. There exist extensive data of butterfly occurrences, and recently published extensive open-source databases on European butterflies provide a unique precondition for research studies. Thus, butterflies represent an excellent model group to run complex and large-scale analyses.
Research questions
In this study, I will elaborate the following research questions: 1. Where are hotspots of species, functional, and phylogenetic diversity across Europe? 2. Do future latitudinal and altitudinal range shifts lead to spatial mismatches between butterflies and their host plants? 3. Is the level of climatic niche specialisation conserved across phylogenetic lineages? 4. Do species´ responses to environmental changes depend on the degree of specialisation of these taxa?
Methods
I will assemble occurrence data of butterfly species and their host plants from public databases on continental and regional scale to identify current hotspots of species, phylogenetic and functional diversity. I will project future distributions of butterfly species and their larval host plants based on various environmental change scenarios. Combining distribution models with phylogenetic and ecological information for all European species will enable to investigate the evolutionary plasticity of niche width and to assess the impact of climate and land-use changes on taxa with different ecological performances.
Level of originality
In my studies, I will calculate distribution models (SDMs) for the entire European butterfly fauna and thus I will create a comprehensive picture of future threads to the European butterfly fauna. Extending the commonly used set of bioclimatic variables by additional information such as solar radiation, land cover and vegetation indices, in combination with sophisticated approaches of ensemble species distribution modelling, ensures accuracy of results. A particular novelty of the project is the inclusion of the evolutionary history and of ecological aspects of European butterflies, which could have a major impact on future trends in European butterfly diversity.
KurztitelBiodiversity persistence under climate change
StatusLaufend
Tatsächlicher Beginn/ -es Ende1/09/2331/08/25