The Geopoliticization of Trade Policy

Currently, we are witnessing a “geopoliticization” of trade policy, whereby countries increasingly use trade policy (at least rhetorically) to achieve national security goals. This trend is related to both the U.S.-China trade war and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, but it has become a much broader phenomenon affecting most countries worldwide. In this research project, I plan to analyse the politics behind this geopoliticization of trade policy. Even in the face of geopolitical tensions, governments that want to stay in power have an incentive to implement trade policies that maximize support and minimize opposition from domestic actors, such as citizens and business associations. This begs the following question that I plan to address: how does a government trade national security interests off against demands from domestic actors when making trade policy decisions?

To answer this question, the project will study variation in the extent of geopoliticization across countries and industries, how domestic actors push for or react to the geopoliticization of trade, how this plays out in six key trading entities (China, the EU, India, Mexico, Turkey, and the United States), and the consequences that geopoliticized trade measures have for trade flows and global value chains. By innovating in terms of theory, empirical research, and methodology, this project promises to have a significant impact on the literature on the trade-security nexus. Furthermore, it has implications for work done on issues such as the political economy of trade, international conflict, the political economy of emerging countries, and global value chains. Given that it addresses questions such as the emergence of a new international order, the distribution of wealth, and the likelihood of interstate conflict, this project is also of broad societal interest.